Never tell me the odds

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Never tell me the odds
The – probably incorrect – answers to the questions you never imagined asking about the odds of Sunny Bounder, Lando, Guri et. al.

Some pilots or upgrades might have abilities based on the luck of the dices that might look tempting or maybe seem to improbable to pay off. Here is a run down of some of these.

Sunny Bounder – living on the bright side of luck

Sunny Bounder

The insufferable optimist and space bum Sunny lives by her luck alone, expecting it to save her whenever necessary. although it is tempting to consider the glass half full, more often than not the fortunes of the die roll will betray her.

Offense

The fewer die you roll, the more likely it will be for her ability to activate. Piloting a M3-A interceptor the ordinary attack will result in a die roll of two attack dices, giving her the following odds for success.

2 attack dices

focusfocusfocus6.25%

hithithit14.06%

critcritcrit1.56%

2 attack dices + lock

focusfocusfocus18.08%

hithithit42.58%

critcritcrit5.40%

3 attack dices

focusfocusfocusfocus1.56%

hithithithit5.27%

critcritcritcrit0.20%

3 attack dices + lock

focusfocusfocusfocus29.69%

hithithithit29.21%

critcritcritcrit1.29%

Defense

It is even more difficult for the fortune seeker to benefit from her ability on defense, due to the extra agility value. Best advice, don’t count on it and praise your luck when it then happens – even though that can feel like a missed opportunity, because it means you then have at least 4 evade results, and probably some in excess.

3 defense dices

focusfocusfocusfocus1.56%

evadeevadeevadeevade5.27%

4 defense dices

focusfocusfocusfocusfocus0.39%

evadeevadeevadeevadeevade1.98%

5 defense dices

focusfocusfocusfocusfocusfocus0.10%

evadeevadeevadeevadeevadeevade0.74%

C-3P0 – being wrong in more than 7 million forms of communications

The Golden God

The Golden God of protocol droids does tell you the odds. Although he is rarely right, it does pay off, when his calculations adds up, giving you an extra evade result. But what odds are the droid looking at?

1 defense die

If you are able to roll a single green die, C-3P0 only give you the option to guess at exactly 1 evade result. Knowing that each defense die exhibit 3 sides with the evade icon, that gives you 37.5% chance of rolling the wanted 1 evade.
But when considering the guess comes with a price, namely 1 calculate token, there might be occasions where it is more wisely to keep the calculate token and forfeit the protocol droid altogether. If you have no way of modify your defense dices after the roll or don’t wish to spend your possible other tokens, you should consider the options of ignore C-3P0 and save the calculate token for defense die modification. In that case the ship will be able to produce 1 evade with 62.5% chance of success.

So the end results will be:

Guess: evade

blank62.5%

evade0.0%

evadeevade37.5%

Guess: evade + calculate

blank37.5%

evade25.0%

evadeevade37.5%

calculate

blank37.5%

evade62.5%

evadeevade0.0%

So all in all, C-3P0 works best if you beside his guessing has something extra to bolster the defense dices.

2 defense dices

For each added die to the defense pool, the poor protocol droid will suffer more strain. Rolling two dices you will suddenly have to make a choice about what to guess. But it is still common knowledge, that in most situations the safe bet will be a guess of 1. This will give you around 60.94% chance of ending up with two
evade results – either by rolling them naturally or with the added one from C-3P0.
If you desperately needs to roll evade on both dices – or just wish to push your luck, know that you are looking at 9 out of 64 usable results from the dices, translated to just above 14%. This slim chance of course make those rare occurrences when this feat pulls of that much sweeter.

No modifications

blank39.06%

evade46.88%

evadeevade14.06%

evadeevadeevade0.00%

Guess: evade

blank39.06%

evade0.00%

evadeevade60.94%

evadeevadeevade0.00%

Guess: evade + calculate

blank14.06%

evade25.00%

evadeevade60.94%

evadeevadeevade0.00%

calculate

blank14.06%

evade53.13%

evadeevade32.81%

evadeevadeevade0.00%

Guess: evadeevade

blank39.06%

evade46.88%

evadeevade0.00%

evadeevadeevade14.08%

Guess: evadeevade + calculate

blank14.06%

evade53.13%

evadeevade18.75%

evadeevadeevade14.08%

3 defense dices

C-3P0 really don’t wishes to calculate the odds of rolling three dices, but an obstructed attack with range 3 bonus does net you three green dices, short circuiting the poor droid. But interestingly the chances of rolling 1 evade does not differ significantly compared to rolling 2 dices.

Number of evade results

blank24.41%

evade43.95%

evadeevade26.37%

evadeevadeevade5.27%

So the sensible choice would be a guess of 1 evade, securing you at least 2 evades with a probability of 75.59%. Wanting 3 evades a guess of two has a 31.64% chance of being succesful. Wanting to shoot for the stars, you have around an 1 in 20 chance of ending up with 4 evades.

4 defense dices

It is quite unusual for C-3P0 to be tasked with calculating the odds of four or more green dices, mainly because he rarely enters ship with an agility value higher than 1. But in those cases, he will again be looking at a guess of 1 or 2. With a guess of 1, he has 84.74% chance of supporting a result providing at least two evades. A guess of 2 has an almost 50/50 (48.12%) chance of three or more evades.

Number of evade results

blank15.26%

evade36.62%

evadeevade32.96%

evadeevadeevade13.18%

evadeevadeevadeevade1.98%

Lando Calrissian – Full Sabacc, one way or another

Lando Calrissian

The entrepreneurial gambler Lando can play whatever hand he is dealt, but it never hurt to stack the deck.
Lando is preferably asking for 2 focus and/or evade results, which he can expect with a probability of 39.06%.
Still a lot better chance than getting a blankblank that only shows up 14.06% of the time.
If the gambler desperately needs a focus – arguably the better token – he is looking at a 43.75% chance of receiving at least 1 focus.
The chances of rolling minimum 1 evade is quite higher at 60.94%.

Lando's hand

blankblank14.06%

evade28.13%

focus18.75%

evadeevade14.06%

focusevade18.75%

focusfocus6.25%

Guri – droid after all

Guri

Guri is one of the few pilots that can consistently expect to enter combat with the combination of focus and calculate thus confronting the Black Sun Assassin Droid with the challenge of knowing when to spend the more powerful focus token and when to keep it for a possible devastating attack against her fragile StarViper. Attacking at initiative 5 means that she will often open fire before knowing the scale of the possible retaliation.

Both the attack and the defense die contain two sides showing a focus result, so here is an examination of the probabilities of these dices ending up on these sides.

3 dice roll

blank42.18%

focus42.19%

focusfocus14.06%

focusfocusfocus1.56%

4 dice roll

blank31.65%

focus42.18%

focusfocus21.09%

focusfocusfocus4.68%

focusfocusfocusfocus0.39%

5 dice roll

blank23.74%

focus39.55%

focusfocus26.38%

focusfocusfocus8.79%

focusfocusfocusfocus1.46%

focusfocusfocusfocusfocus0.10%

Defense

Considering that Guri gets her focus token from being at range 0-1 of an enemy ship, means that often she will defend with only three green dices, implicating that she with some confidence can blow off her focus token with her possible 4 attack dices, with only a 15.62% chance that she will roll 2 or more focus results on defense. It gets a bit more tricky if she can muster 4 or 5 defense dices, where a focus is needed with a outcome of 26.16% and 36.73% respectively.

3 defense dice

blank24.41%

evade43.95%

evadeevade26.37%

evadeevadeevade5.27%

3 defense dice + calculate

blank5.27%

evade34.96%

evadeevade43.94%

evadeevadeevade15.82%

3 defense dice + focus

blank5.27%

evade26.37%

evadeevade45.95%

evadeevadeevade24.41%

4 defense dice

blank15.26%

evade36.62%

evadeevade32.96%

evadeevadeevade13.18%

evadeevadeevadeevade1.98%

4 defense dice + calculate

blank1.98%

evade21.18%

evadeevade40.58%

evadeevadeevade29.00%

evadeevadeevadeevade7.25%

4 defense dice + focus

blank1.98%

evade13.18%

evadeevade32.96%

evadeevadeevade36.62%

evadeevadeevadeevade15.26%

5 defense dice

blank9.54%

evade28.61%

evadeevade34.33%

evadeevadeevade20.60%

evadeevadeevadeevade6.18%

evadeevadeevadeevadeevade0.74%

5 defense dice + calculate

blank0.74%

evade12.51%

evadeevade32.32%

evadeevadeevade34.34%

evadeevadeevadeevade16.9%

evadeevadeevadeevadeevade3.21%

5 defense dice + focus

blank0.74%

evade6.18%

evadeevade20.60%

evadeevadeevade34.33%

evadeevadeevadeevade28.61%

evadeevadeevadeevadeevade9.54%

Attack

If she feels reckless or there is no need to save the focus token, she will gain the following damage boost using that compared to using the calculate token. (hit‘s and crit‘s added together)

3 attack dice

blank12.5%

hit37.5%

hithit37.5%

hithithit12.5%

3 attack dice + calculate

blank1.56%

hit20.32%

hithit46.87%

hithithit31.25%

3 attack dice + focus

blank1.56%

hit14.06%

hithit42.19%

hithithit42.19%

4 attack dice

blank6.25%

hit25.00%

hithit37.50%

hithithit25.00%

hithithithit6.25%

4 attack dice + calculate

blank0.39%

hit8.98%

hithit31.24%

hithithit40.64%

hithithithit18.75%

4 attack dice + focus

blank0.39%

hit4.69%

hithit21.09%

hithithit42.19%

hithithithit31.64%

Cloaking Device – you milage may vary

Illicit

Some Scum or extremist pilots don’t shy away from retrofitting their vessels with illicit and dangerous equipment to get and edge against more orderly or industrial opposition from the Rebel Alliance or the Galactic Empire. These pieces of goods from the underbelly of the shipyards does give these pilots some significant advantages in the vacuum, but one thing is for certain, they do not come with an warranty.

The Cloaking Device is a highly sought after upgrade for the more cunning and shady opportunists. But is is a fickle piece of equipment, that might betray its master at the most desperate moment. SO for how long can you expect the Cloaking Device to keep running on a single charge?

Number of rounds

1 round75.00%

2 rounds56.25%

3 rounds42.19%

4 rounds31.64%

5 rounds23.73%

6 rounds17.80%

7 rounds13.35%

8 rounds10.01%

9 rounds7.51%

10 rounds5.63%

Guides & strategies

Never tell me the odds

Never tell me the odds

The – probably incorrect – answers to the questions you never imagined asking about the odds of Sunny Bounder, Lando, Guri et. al.

Assume Everyone Will Betray You

Assume Everyone Will Betray You

The scum of the galaxy only works for their own ends. Even when they are flying together in squads you can be assured that their selfishness will shine through.

The Focus of the Rebellion

The Focus of the Rebellion

In X-wing Second Edition the Rebels are up to their usual old tricks with helping each other perform better in dog fights. With a large part of the Rebel pilot roster revealed, we can take a look at pilot abilities that either depends on having Focus tokens or provides additional Focus tokens to allies.

The phantom pain

The phantom pain

The TIE Phantom is arguably the most advanced and difficult ship to fly in the fleet of the Empire. Learn how to get the most out of these sneaky devils.

META

Posted on:
Revised: 14-07 2018
Submitted by: Echo